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早在1999年，微软创始人比尔-盖茨曾写下一本名为《未来时速-数字系统与商务新思维》的著作。盖茨在书中对未来做出了15个大胆的预言。这些预言在当时听起来不可思议，而如今却基本上都已实现或接近实现，比如：移动设备的普及、移动支付、互联网金融、物联网等。
No. 1: Price-comparison sites.
1. 比价网站 Gates' prediction: "Automated price comparison services will be developed, allowing people to see prices across multiple websites, making it effortless to find the cheapest product for all industries."
预测：“自动比价服务将被开发出来，人们借此可以看到多个网站上的价格，毫不费力地找到所有行业中最便宜的产品。” What we see now: You can easily search for a product on Google or Amazon and get different prices. Sites like NexTag, PriceGrabber, and even Microsoft's own Bing Shopping are built specifically to compare prices.
现状：你可以轻松地在谷歌或亚马逊上搜索产品，并得到不同报价。NexTag、PriceGrabber、甚至微软的必应购物等专业比价搜索网站也涌现出来。 No. 2: Mobile devices.
2. 移动设备 Gates' prediction: "People will carry around small devices that allow them to constantly stay in touch and do electronic business from wherever they are. They will be able to check the news, see flights they have booked, get information from financial markets, and do just about anything else on these devices."
预测：“人们将随身携带小型设备，并用于和他人随时保持联系，随地都能开展电子商务。人们可以查看新闻和预订航班，从金融市场获取信息，以及做任何其他事情。” What we see now: Smartphones, smartwatches, speakers like the Amazon Echo, and even headsets like the Microsoft HoloLens give users a way to have all of their information on hand at all times.
现状：智能手机、智能手表、亚马逊Echo等智能音箱、微软全息透镜等设备都可以让使用者随时获取信息。
No. 3: Instant payments and financing online, and better healthcare through the web.
3. 即时支付和互联网金融、互联网医疗 Gates' prediction: "People will pay their bills, take care of their finances, and communicate with their doctors over the internet."
预测：“人们会通过互联网支付账单、理财并与医生沟通。” What we see now: Tech hasn't been able to change healthcare the way Uber changed transportation, but sites like ZocDoc aim to make finding a doctor and scheduling easier.
现状：技术没能像优步改变交通行业那样改变医疗行业，但ZocDoc等网站使人们在寻找医生和安排就诊时更方便。 You can also now borrow money online through sites like Lending Club and easily make payments through sites and apps like PayPal and Venmo.
你可以在Lending Club这类的网站贷款，用贝宝或者Venmo等网站和应用程序完成在线付款。 No. 4: Personal assistants and the internet of things.
4. 私人助理和物联网 Gates' prediction: "'Personal companions' will be developed. They will connect and sync all your devices in a smart way, whether they are at home or in the office, and allow them to exchange data. The device will check your email or notifications, and present the information that you need. When you go to the store, you can tell it what recipes you want to prepare, and it will generate a list of ingredients that you need to pick up."
预测：“私人伴侣”将被开发出来，它们将以智能的方式连接并同步你办公室和家中的所有设备，并允许设备之间交换数据。它将能够检查你的电子邮件或通知，并提供你需要的信息。当你去商店时，你可以告诉它你要准备的食谱，它将生成你需要购买的食材列表。 What we see now: Virtual voice assistants like Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa are moving in this direction, offering a personalized way to get your information just by asking for it out loud. Meanwhile, smart devices like Nest collect data on your daily routines and automatically adjust your house's temperature.
现状：谷歌助理和亚马逊Alexa等虚拟语音助手正朝着这一方向迈进。它们为用户提供个性化方式，只需大声说出要求就能知道你所需。同时，Nest等智能设备可以收集你的日常生活数据，并自动调整房屋温度。
No. 5: Online home-monitoring.
5. 在线家庭监控 Gates' prediction: "Constant video feeds of your house will become common, which inform you when somebody visits while you are not home."
预测：“家庭实时录像监控将会普及。如果在你外出的时候有人来访，系统就会及时通知你。” What we see now: This is increasingly common — companies like Canary, Ring, Netgear, and Google cousin company Nest all make cameras that let you view the feed from your phone, and that send a push alert when there's a human in view.
现状：这越来越普遍了，Canary、Ring、Netgear和谷歌的兄弟公司Nest都在生产可以从手机读取视频信息的摄像头。如果有人出现在摄像头范围内，还会发给你提醒消息。
No. 6: Social media.
6．社交媒体 Gates' prediction: "Private websites for your friends and family will be common, allowing you to chat and plan for events."
预测：“你的朋友和家人都将会有他们专属的私人网站，你们可以私聊或者策划活动。” What we see now: "Private websites" didn't quite happen. But Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Snapchat, Line, Slack, and plenty of other apps give you an easy way to keep in contact with groups large and small.
现状：“私人网站”并没有出现。但脸书、WhatsApp、Instagram、Snapchat、Line、Slack和其他众多应用程序可以让你轻松与大小团体保持联系。 No. 7: Automated promotional offers.
7．自动优惠促销 Gates' prediction: "Software that knows when you've booked a trip and uses that information to suggest activities at the local destination. It suggests activities, discounts, offers, and cheaper prices for all the things that you want to take part in."
预测：“只要你制定好旅行计划，就会有专门的软件通过这些信息，为你提供到达目的地后的活动建议。它可以提议活动，通知你优惠和促销类的信息，以及所有商品或是你想使用的服务的最低价格。 What we see now: Travel sites like Expedia and Kayak offer deals based on a user's past purchase data. Google and Facebook can offer promotional ads based on the user's location and interests. Airbnb, which lets people stay in homes rather than hotels, offers specialized trips at destinations so you can live like a local, too.
现状：Expedia和Kayak等旅游网站可以根据你的购买记录向你提供建议。谷歌和脸书也会根据用户的所在地和兴趣爱好，向他们推送促销广告。爱彼迎让游客能短租在别人家中而不是酒店，还向游客提供专门的旅行建议，让你像当地人一样生活。
No. 8: Live sports discussion sites.
8. 直播体育赛事讨论网站 Gates' prediction: "While watching a sports competition on television, services will allow you to discuss what is going on live, and enter a contest where you vote on who you think will win."
预测：“当你在电视上观看体育比赛时，你将可以在网站上实时讨论该赛事，并为你认为将获胜的一方投票。” What we see now: A bunch of social media sites allow this, with Twitter being the clear leader — it even experimented with streaming some games. You can also leave comments in real time on sports sites like ESPN.
现状：一大堆社交媒体网站有这种功能，推特是其中的领导者（甚至直播一些比赛）。你也可以在ESPN这样的体育网站上实时评论某一场体育比赛。 No. 9: Smart advertising.
9. 智能广告 Gates' prediction: "Devices will have smart advertising. They will know your purchasing trends, and will display advertisements that are tailored toward your preferences."
预测：“人们使用的设备将提供智能广告。广告商将了解你的购买习惯，并将展示根据你的偏好量身订做的广告。” What we see now: Just look at the ads you see on Facebook or Google — most online advertising services have this feature, where advertisers can target users based on their click history, interests, and purchasing patterns.
现状：脸书或谷歌的广告就是这样。大多数在线广告服务都具有这种功能，广告商可以根据用户的点击记录、个人兴趣和购买模式来定位用户。
No. 10: Links to sites during live TV.
10. 广播电视中的网站链接 Gates' prediction: "Television broadcast will include links to relevant websites and content that complement what you are watching."
预测：“广播电视将提供相关网站的链接和内容，作为节目内容的补充。” What we see now: Almost every commercial these days has a callout asking the viewer to go to a website, follow the business on Twitter, or a scan a QR code to add it on Snapchat.
现状：几乎每一个商业广告都在引导人们去相关网站，或去推特参与讨论，或者通过扫描一个二维码将它们添加到Snapchat上。 No. 11: Online discussion boards.
11. 在线讨论板块 Gates' prediction: "Residents of cities and countries will be able to have internet-based discussions concerning issues that affect them, such as local politics, city planning, or safety."
预测：“城市乃至国家的居民都将能够在网上讨论他们感兴趣的话题，例如当地政治，城市规划，或是安全问题等等。” What we see now: Most news sites have comment sections where people can have live discussions, and many sites have forums where people can ask and respond to certain questions.
现状：大多数新闻网站都有评论功能，人们可以即时进行讨论。许多网站开辟了论坛，人们可以在上面询问并回答某些问题。 No. 12: Interest-based online sites.
12. 基于兴趣的在线社区 Gates' prediction: "Online communities will not be influenced by your location, but rather, your interest."
预测：“在线社区的形成将不是基于你的位置，而是基于你的兴趣。” What we see now: All kinds of news sites and online communities focus on single topics. Many news sites have expanded to include separate verticals, offering more in-depth coverage on a given topic. Reddit is a great example of a website that's divided into subgroups, or "subreddits," that focus on interests rather than who you know or where you are.
现状：现在已经有了各种专注单一主题的新闻网站和在线社区，也出现了许多细分的新闻站点，为特定主题提供更深入的新闻报道。红迪网是一个很好的例子，该网站被分为不同的子版块，每一个子版块都基于用户的兴趣，而不是基于你认识的人或者你的地理位置。 No. 13: Project-management software.
13. 项目管理软件 Gates' prediction: "Project managers looking to put a team together will be able to go online, describe the project, and receive recommendations for available people who would fit their requirements."
预测：“希望建立一个团队的项目经理将能够在网上描述项目，并接受符合职位要求的新人推荐。” What we see now: Tons of workflow software in the enterprise space, including Slack, Asana, and Trello, are revolutionizing how you recruit, form teams, and assign work to others.
现状：现在业界内有无数个工作流程软件，比如Slack、Asana和Trello等等，彻底改变了招募人员、组织团队和分配工作的方式。
No. 14: Online recruiting.
14．在线招聘 Gates' prediction: "Similarly, people looking for work will be able to find employment opportunities online by declaring their interest, needs, and specialized skills."
预测：“求职者可以在网上注明他们的兴趣、需求和专业技能，寻找合适的就业机会。” What we see now: Sites like LinkedIn allow users to upload résumés and find jobs based on interests and needs, and recruiters can search based on specialized skills.
现状：用户可以在Linkedin一类的网站上传他们的履历，根据个人兴趣和需求找到工作。招聘者也可以根据专业技能来搜寻相对应的求职者。 No. 15: Business community software.
15．企业社区软件 Gates' prediction: "Companies will be able to bid on jobs, whether they are looking for a construction project, a movie production, or an advertising campaign. This will be efficient for both big companies that want to outsource work that they don't usually face, businesses looking for new clients, and corporations that don't have a go-to provider for the said service."
预测：“公司将可以投标工作，无论他们是在寻求建筑项目，电影制作还是广告宣传等等。不管是对想要外包不熟悉的工作的大公司，寻找新客户的企业，还是没有既定供应商的公司，这个方法都会非常有效。” What we see now: There's not quite a single marketplace for companies to go find work, as a whole. However, a bunch of so-called "gig economy" services, like Upwork and Fiverr, allow freelancers and small businesses to find clients. Meanwhile, Craigslist remains as a favorite place for small businesses to connect with one another and find jobs.
现状：目前没有单独的市场让公司寻找业务，但有众多的“零工经济”服务涌现出来，让自由职业者和小企业寻找客户，比如Upwork和Fiverr等等。同时，克雷格网站仍是小企业互相联系寻找商机的最佳之选。
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发表于 2018-2-7 11:25:01
